Population Reference Bureau PRB Discuss

Africa's Demographic Challenges

Of the 48 least developed countries in the world, 33 are located in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, this region stands out with the highest birth rates in the world. By the year 2050, the number of people in the region may double, and by the end of the century it may even quadruple. The Berlin Institute's study, Africa's Demographic Challenges: How a Young Population Can Make Development Possible reports on 103 current and former developing countries, showing that no single country has developed socioeconomically without a parallel decline in its birth rate. If fertility decreases, a population's age structure changes: Proportionally, there are fewer children, and instead, more people of working age. According to the theory of the "demographic dividend," this favorable age structure can boost development. The experience of the Asian Tigers (Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan), who translated their population boom in the working-age group into rapid economic growth, is proof of this dividend. The Asian Tigers had a demographic starting point comparable to many sub-Saharan African countries today and were similarly less developed. Through massive investments into education, family planning, and the job market, these Asian countries managed to take advantage of their demographic dividend—an estimated one-third of the economic growth in East and Southeast Asia can be attributed to this dividend. Join Reiner Klingholz, Tanja Kiziak, and Manuel Slupina from the Berlin Institute for Population and Development, as they answer your questions about Africa's demographic challenges and opportunities.

Manuel Slupina

Tanja Kiziak

Reiner Klingholz

What Does 'Poverty' Really Mean in India?

The past few years have seen much hype regarding the economic progress in India, much of it extolling the country's "rising incomes" and "exploding" middle class. Entrepreneurs in the country seem to have believed this, resulting in an overbuilding of glitzy malls and the rapid expansion of the number of domestic airlines. Although there has been definite economic progress in India, who exactly benefits? The number of people living in poverty is often ignored. India's official poverty measure has long been this: People below the poverty line have a daily diet of less than 2,400 kilocalories in rural areas and less than 2,100 kilocalories in urban areas. What do measures of wealth such as "middle class" and "poverty" mean in India, compared to countries such as the United States or those in Europe? Estimates of the number of people in poverty in the country vary wildly, as Carl Haub wrote in a 2010 PRB web article with co-author O.P. Sharma, and even the slightest changes in the definition of poverty can change the number of the poor in India by millions. India is on track to become the world's largest country about 10 years from now, despite declining fertility. How will it manage the population growth in its very large and very poor states? Join Carl Haub, senior demographer at PRB, as he answers your questions about what "poverty" and "middle class" in India really mean as standards of living, and what implications these may have for India's economic and demographic future.

Chronic Diseases Affect Youth Globally

In 2008, 36 million people died from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Deaths related to these chronic diseases are increasing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Over half of deaths are associated with behaviors that begin or are reinforced during adolescence, including tobacco and alcohol use, poor eating habits, and lack of exercise. Global trends indicate that NCD-related behaviors are on the rise among young people, and that they establish patterns of behavior that persist throughout life and are often hard to change. Despite the contribution of adolescent health to reducing NCDs globally, the September 2011 High-Level Meeting of the UN General Assembly in New York did not address these issues. What is known about adolescent contributions to NCDs? What are effective strategies to address them? Join Dr. Robert Blum, William H. Gates Sr. professor, and chair, Department of Population, Family, and Reproductive Health at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and director, Johns Hopkins Urban Health Institute, as he answers your questions about how chronic diseases affect youth and what we can do to prevent them.

For more on chronic diseases and youth, go to www.prb.org. Read an article co-authored by PRB president Wendy Baldwin, and listen to an interview with her.

Robert W. Blum

The Increasing Complexity of Family Life in the United States

Today, Americans are more likely to marry and to divorce than in almost any other Western nation. How has this pattern changed over the last 10 years? What are the implications for current and future generations? Johns Hopkins University professor Andrew Cherlin's review of the research, "Demographic Trends in the United States: A Review of Research in the 2000s," covers trends in marriage and cohabitation, divorce, fertility, children's living arrangements, and aging. The article was published in the Journal of Marriage and Family (vol. 72, no. 3, 2010). Cherlin is also the principal investigator of the "Three-City Study," an interdisciplinary study of low-income children and their caregivers in the post-welfare-reform era, and the pilot study "Intergenerational Support in an Era of Complex Kinship." Join Andrew Cherlin, study author and Griswold Professor of Sociology and Public Policy at Johns Hopkins University, as he answers your questions about family life in the United States over the past decade.

Andrew Cherlin

Mobilizing Youth in the Development Process

At the start of the UN International Year of Youth in August 2010, UN Focal Point on Youth Nicola Shepherd stated: "The International Year is about advancing the full and effective participation of youth in all aspects of society...we encourage all sectors of society to work in partnership with youth and youth organizations to better understand their needs and concerns and to recognize the contributions that they can make to society." The current efforts to achieve universal access to HIV prevention, care, and treatment; and to address issues related to fertility, reproductive health, and development, provide tremendous opportunities to work with and on behalf of the largest generation ever of young people. Yet, young people's engagement in the development process continues to be informal and sporadic. Ultimately, collaborative partnerships with young people are fundamental to support national and community development and to achieve the MDGs. Join Roli Mahajan, International Year of Youth Journalist for Advocates of Youth, as she answers your questions about how to mobilize and engage youth in the development process. For more on the International Year of Youth, go to www.prb.org. Read articles, listen to an interview, and download a new set of PowerPoint slides on youth.

Roli Mahajan

Jill Gay

Melanie Croce-Galis

What Works for Women and Girls: Evidence for HIV and AIDS Interventions

What Works for Women and Girls: Evidence for HIV and AIDS Interventions synthesizes the vast research literature on program interventions (through the end of 2009) to provide clear evidence of what works and what seems most promising for women and girls that improve a range of HIV outcomes. Intended for policymakers, program managers, civil society, implementing partners, and donors, the website www.whatworksforwomen.org includes searchable findings from over 450 interventions in 90 countries and is also available as a downloadable document. What Works for Women and Girls is currently a project of the Public Health Institute. Join website authors Karen Hardee, Visiting Senior Fellow, PRB; Jill Gay, President, J. Gay Associates; and Melanie Croce-Galis, President, Global Artemis Consulting as they answer your questions about interventions related to HIV and AIDS programming and the evidence base needed for those designing policies and programs for women and girls.